GHI Outlines Earthquake Risk in Developing World
Released: December 8, 1998
San Francisco, CA -- Earthquakes and other natural disasters
in developing countries often disrupt these countries’
fragile economies far out of proportion to the magnitude of
the precipitating event. Death and injuries are also disproportionately
greater, according to Brian Tucker, a U.S. seismologist who
specializes in earthquake risk management in developing countries.
Speaking at the American Geophysical Union meeting here today,
Tucker said, “For example, the 1988 earthquake in Armenia
and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in northern California were
nearly equivalent in their magnitudes and the number of people
in the affected regions.” But the results were far different
-- 63 people were killed in California, and 25,000 people died
in Armenia.
Neither the Loma Prieta nor the Armenian earthquake were what
seismologists call a major earthquake, one of magnitude 7.5
or greater. “A major earthquake near a large city in the
developing world can kill tens of thousands of people and render
hundreds of thousands more homeless,” Tucker said.
Urban earthquake risk in developing countries is a rapidly
growing problem. For example, in 1950 there were 3 earthquake-threatened
“megacities” -- that is, cities with populations
greater than 8 million -- while in 2000 there will be 28.
Tucker, President of GeoHazards International (GHI), used the
nearly completed GHI study of earthquake hazard in Kathmandu
as an illustration. “The Kathmandu Valley has experienced
strong earthquake shaking once every 50 to 75 years. Because
the last strong shaking there occurred in 1934, the next is
soon due,” Tucker said. “And when it happens, the
resulting disaster will have a regional dimension, never before
experienced,” added Amod Dixit, Executive Director of
NSET (National Society of Earthquake Technology - Nepal). Tucker
and Dixit are co-directors of the current risk study in Kathmandu.
Speaking at the AGU session, “Dealing with Natural Disasters,”
James N. Brune, Professor of Geophysics in the University of
Nevada and a Trustee of GHI, described how the next major earthquake
near Kathmandu Valley might affect the valley’s infrastructure.
Electrical and telephone service could be partially restored
in weeks, but other parts of the infrastructure -- water, bridges,
roads -- would not fare so well.
It would take at least three months for most parts of the valley
to have some access to piped water and resumption of normal
service would not occur for several years. As much as sixty
percent of the bridge network in the valley would be unusable,
and debris would further complicate transportation in urban
areas. Restoring electrical, phone and water service to pre-earthquake
levels, clearing debris and rebuilding roads, bridges and buildings
would take several years.
The bottom line, Tucker and Brune projected, is that 40,000
people could be killed, another 95,000 injured and 900,000 made
homeless. “Such devastating losses are not necessary,”
Tucker argued. “If existing methods of emergency response
planning, urban planning, retrofitting of critical structures
and construction of new buildings are aggressively applied,
the magnitude of the impending tragedy could be greatly reduced.
Thousands of deaths could be avoided.”
This is the mission of GHI, a nonprofit California organization
located in Palo Alto. GHI is dedicated to helping the most vulnerable
communities recognize their risk and implement methods to manage
and reduce that risk.
GHI believes in augmenting international assistance with local
action. For example, after a GHI-led team did a detailed assessment
of seismic risk in Quito, Ecuador, the local government began
retrofit work of schools and emergency response planning. Similar
studies in Central Asia are stimulating local efforts there.
GHI studies similar to that now being completed in Kathmandu
are underway in Tijuana, Mexico; Antofagasta, Chile; and Guayaquil,
Ecuador. The GHI approach is also being applied by other organizations
in a U.N. sponsored project in six cities elsewhere in the world
-- Zygong, China; Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Bandung, Indonesia;
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Skopje, Yugoslavia; and Izmir, Turkey.
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For further information contact:
Brian Tucker
GeoHazards International
(650) 614-9050
tucker@geohaz.org
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