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Reducing Risk from Earthquake Tragedies: New study
of 21 cities released, More studies launched in India, Pakistan
and Mexico
Released: 2001
Palo Alto, California--Deadly earthquakes rocked the world
in India and El Salvador in January and February this year,
killing tens of thousands and causing billions of dollars in
damage. But today, earthquake scientists are releasing a study
that shows that while earthquakes are inevitable, the increasing
death tolls are not.
The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) is a new study
by GeoHazards International (GHI), a nonprofit group in Palo
Alto, and the United Nations Centre for Regional Development
(UNCRD). The report shows that simple measures can be used in
advance to reduce the hazards of big quakes and help poor regions
such as El Salvador and Gujarat, India avoid rising death tolls
and economic collapse.
GHI is a nonprofit organization working toward the reduction
of death and suffering due to earthquakes in the world's most
vulnerable communities. GHI has worked extensively on earthquake
risk in Latin America and Asia for the last eight years, and
in San Salvador, El Salvador for the last three years. GHI staff
are internationally recognized as experts in the field of community
seismic risk assessment and planning for risk reduction in developing
countries.
The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative tested a new method
for making earthquake horrors pertinent to today's leaders and
urban planners. Twenty-one earthquake-prone cities throughout
the world were studied in this first year pilot project. Results
show sources of risk in these urban areas and the most effective
ways to reduce the loss of life. Earthquake professionals are
encouraged by the results and hope to extend the study to include
up to 400 additional cities throughout the world. Already, two
additional studies are being launched in Mexico and India.
Other proposals are being considered for funding. For each city,
the study calculated the total and per capita Earthquake Lethality
Potential (ELP) and showed how the deadly potential of earthquakes
could be reduced in each region. The Earthquake Lethality Potential
is the number of deaths that would occur from all the probable
shaking that a city would experience over the next 50 years.
This number is derived in steps. First, the risks of building
collapse, earthquake-caused landslides and post-earthquake fires
are separately assessed. Then these risk factors are combined.
Finally, the figure is modified to reflect the cities' capability
for search and rescue efforts and medical care. Cities can then
be compared across many dimensions. The following cities were
included in the GESI pilot year study. School comparison data
is available for cities marked with an asterisk (*):
Antofagasta, Chile*
Bandung, Indonesia*
Delhi, India
Guayaquil, Ecuador
Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Istanbul, Turkey*
Izmir, Turkey
Jakarta, Indonesia
Kathmandu, Nepal*
Kobe, Japan*
Manila, Philippines*
Mexicali, Mexico*
Mumbai, India*
Nagoya, Japan*
Quito, Ecuador*
San Salvador, El Salvador*
Santiago, Chile*
Tashkent, Uzbekistan*
Tijuana, Mexico
Tokyo, Japan*
Vancouver, Canada
Expansion of the study to other vulnerable areas has begun.
In Mexico, where Tijuana and Mexicali were part of the original
study, a government scientific research laboratory will sponsor
application of the GHI method to additional regions. The Centro
de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada
(CICESE) will begin work in November.
Additional work in India will begin soon, as well. Following
the devastating earthquake in Gujarat, India in January of this
year, the Volunteers for India Development and Empowerment (VIDE),
a San Jose-based nonprofit organization collected funds to help
that state recover. VIDE has decided to fund GHI and an Indian
nonprofit organization to help three of the most vulnerable
cities in Gujarat to evaluate the sources of their risk and
the most effective mitigation programs. This work will start
in November, with a meeting of the primary players in New Delhi,
India. Mumbai (formerly Bombay) and Delhi, India, were included
in the first 21 cities studied.
FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance, a nonprofit association based
in Falls Church, Virginia, has joined forces with GHI to apply
the methodology in large earthquake-threatened cities in Central
Asia. GHI and FOCUS have asked the United States Agency for
International Development (Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance)
to support this study, slated to begin in January 2002.
In the GESI study just released, cities are grouped for comparison
by region-Latin America and Asia-and by relative wealth, using
per capita Gross National Product (GNP). Potential deaths for
school-age children were also calculated and compared for 14
of the cities. The report summary, attached, shows the comparisons.
Rank order lists are also attached. GHI President Brian Tucker,
PhD., a prominent geophysicist and former head of the State
of California's Geohazards program, noted that people die in
earthquakes from hazards such as collapsing buildings, landslides,
and fires.
"We systematically predicted deaths due to these factors for
each of these 21 earthquake-prone cities all over the world,"
he explained. "Then we weighed existing medical care and search
and rescue efforts. What we found is that the risk is knowable
and the solutions can be put in place. It has seemed that risk
is mysterious and tragedy certain. But in fact, we can know
both what will happen and what to do about it beforehand."
Over 85% of the world's urban population at risk from earthquakes
lives in developing nations, yet, the study notes, only 15%
of research in earthquake engineering is focusing on problems
in these regions of the world. This imbalance reflects the rapid
urbanization of poor countries as well as the higher investment
in modern architecture and disaster response among nations that
are already industrialized. Over 95 million people live in the
21 cities studied so far. In addition to beginning the two studies
now funded in Mexico and Central Asia, Tucker wants to extend
this work to hundreds more communities. "There are over 380
cities with populations over one million that are at high risk
from earthquakes," he said. "Our study demonstrates that this
risk is knowable, and in each city we can recommend specific
solutions to reduce the risk."
Among the cities studied, over 250,000 people are potential
casualties. This total Earthquake Lethality Potential reflects
only the 21 cities studied so far. ELPs for the individual cities
reflect the contrasts between developing countries that lack
up-to-date buildings, codes and disaster plans and the more
industrialized countries with modern architecture, widely enforced
building codes, and established systems of emergency medical
care and search and rescue. (City rankings are attached.)
The findings powerfully reveal the scientists' points. A school
child in Kathmandu, Nepal is 400 times more likely to be killed
by an earthquake than a school child in Kobe, Japan and 30 times
more likely than a school child in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. In
Latin America, a school child in Mexicali, Mexico is 1.5 times
more likely to be killed than a school child Quito, Ecuador
and about 30 times more likely than a school child in Antofagasta,
Chile. "Simple actions in developing countries such as retrofitting
or rebuilding schools, teaching local masons how to better construct
the small buildings they build, and creating a coordinated emergency
response plan do not cost much," explained Tucker, "but they
have the potential to save thousands of lives. The cost of rebuilding
after an earthquake such as those in India and El Salvador is
vastly higher than the cost of mitigation and preparation."
Dr. Haresh Shah, Professor Emeritus of Civil Engineering at
Stanford University and Chairman of the nonprofit GHI board,
said of the study, "While we congratulate ourselves on a growing
global economy we sometimes forget the tragedies we are building
as we do so. This information makes a huge contribution to our
understanding of how to have a safer planet with greater hope
for the future of the world's children."
Focus on GHI's work has grown this year, with two large earthquakes
devastating the virtually unprepared areas of El Salvador and
Gujarat, India. In El Salvador, the magnitude 7.6 quake and
resulting landslides killed over 700 people and destroyed or
damaged nearly 200,000 homes. In India, the magnitude 7.7 quake
claimed over 20,000 lives and destroyed or damaged nearly 1
million homes. Billions of dollars were lost, and fragile local
economies in these developing areas of the world were shattered.
"International relief efforts have alleviated the destruction,
but these disasters reaffirmed the need for communities to enact
and enforce modern building and land-use codes, strengthen and
prepare medical care facilities, and train and equip emergency
response agencies in order to reduce potential deaths and injuries,"
said Tucker. "While these disasters absorb the world's attention,
hundreds of equally vulnerable communities are paid little notice.
These communities need our continued focus." UNCRD's Senior
Researcher Rajib Shaw noted, "Governments, corporations, foundations
and concerned individuals throughout the world should be aware
of the life-saving potential of this work. With the method we
have developed in GESI, the United Nations and other international
organizations can know where the need is greatest." Earth scientists
at GHI, the California Institute of Technology, the University
of Colorado, Cornell University, the University of British Columbia,
the University of Nevada, Reno, the United States Geological
Survey and other organizations helped develop the methodology
used in the study.
GeoHazards International periodically issues press releases
to raise awareness about the dangers from natural disasters
faced by vulnerable communities around the world.
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For further information contact:
Brian Tucker
GeoHazards International
(650) 614-9050
tucker@geohaz.org
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