Tsunami Warns “The Time Has Come”
The tragic earthquake-tsunami disaster in South Asia has mobilized
the world to respond immediately and to assist in the rescue
and recovery effort. Soon, however, the world’s focus
will shift from the Indian Ocean basin to the next front-page
story. This disaster will inevitably join the Bam earthquake
disaster of the same date one year ago on the growing list of
natural disasters in the developing world that could have been
lessened or even prevented. Before this happens, however, the
urgent global problem of the rapidly increasing risk of natural
disasters in developing countries deserves our immediate attention.
Reducing the effects of natural disasters in developing countries
is a global problem. Developing countries bear the greatest
burden in terms of human losses and, when measured in proportion
to Gross Domestic Product, economic losses. But industrialized
countries increasingly share this risk because of their investments
in developing countries. Set backs to the growth of the governments,
economies, and cultures of developing countries by periodic
natural disasters threaten the personal, political, and economic
security of us all.
The need is urgent. The biggest building boom in the history
of the world is now underway and it is occurring in the cities
of the developing world. A disproportionate number of these
cities are prone to natural disasters. Two billion additional
people – that is, today’s population of India and
China, combined -- will arrive in these cities in the next 20
years. Safe places for these people to live, to go to school,
and to work must be built in cities that are poor and face a
multitude of other urgent challenges.
Although more is being done today to manage natural disasters
than at any time in history, the cities of developing countries
are more vulnerable now than they were 25 years ago. (And over
those 25 years, their population increased by “only”
one billion, just half the increase expected in the next 20
years.) Why are current efforts not keeping pace with the risk?
One problem is that the resources available are inadequate.
Thirty years ago, the UN member countries set a target that
the total assistance to developing countries should be 0.7%
of global Gross Domestic Product. This has never been achieved.
In 2002, it was only 0.2%. And of that, only a small portion
is allotted for natural disasters. Another problem is that too
little is spent on mitigation, preparedness, and prevention.
Most of the resources available are directed toward response,
reconstruction, and recovery. To help people when they are in
greatest need is humane and necessary. It also attracts the
attention of the news media and is therefore politically popular.
But prevention, mitigation and preparedness could reduce death
and losses.
The most serious problem with our current efforts, however,
is the lack of a measurable risk reduction goal, an action plan,
the means to monitor the progress in individual governments,
and the courage to report any stalls in forward movement. Without
these, it is impossible to assign priorities and establish accountability.
We need a natural disaster equivalent to the Kyoto Protocol
for the environment or the UN’s Millennium Goal to halve
poverty by 2015.
Opportunities for improvements abound. Modern technology could
allow resource-strapped developing countries with the means
to enforce their existing building codes and land-use regulations.
Modest investments would allow adapting and applying the US
National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, serving the Pacific
basin, to the Indian Ocean. The US project Impact that developed
community disaster planning mechanisms in many US cities during
the 1990’s could be applied to vulnerable communities
in the developing world.
Current discussion among governments and assistance organizations
now includes how to best set up an early warning system in the
Indian Ocean region to reduce the risk of future tsunami disasters
there. We might best consider the Sumatra earthquake-tsunami
disaster as a powerful warning system alerting us that the time
has come to solve the urgent global problem of growing natural
disaster risk in developing countries.
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For further information contact:
Brian E. Tucker
GeoHazards International
(650) 614-9050
tucker@geohaz.org
GeoHazards International periodically issues press releases to
raise awareness about the dangers from natural disasters faced
by vulnerable communities around the world.
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