Kathmandu (NSET)
Kathmandu Valley Overview | NSET Description | Schools Overview | Scenario Overview | Action Plan Overview
Scenario Overview
A simple loss estimation study was conducted for a repeat of the 1934 earthquake in the modern day Kathmandu Valley. The location and vulnerability of the Kathmandu Valley's infrastructure was determined through interviews with approximately 30 institutions. The information collected in these interviews was combined with previously conducted studies, then a loss estimation study was conducted using simple, order-of-magnitude methods. Loss estimates were conducted for the road, water, electricity and telephone systems and for typicial structures. In addition, possible death and injury figures were determined by looking at statistics from previous comparable earthquakes from around the world.
The Earthquake Scenario
A scenario document that explains the results of the earthquake loss estimation study in layman's terms has been written and published in English and Nepali languages (NSET-1, 1999). This document includes a description of possible damages to various vital systems in Kathmandu and an explanation of the repercussions of this damage on life in the Kathmandu Valley. It also presents the story of one common man, Bhaicha, for an entire year after the scenario earthquake, illustrating how this character's life is impacted. This document is being widely distributed along with information on earthquake preparation methods and means of obtaining additional earthquake safety information. It is expected that this document will provide emotional understanding of the earthquake phenomenon to complement the technical information included in the loss estimation study.
Loss Estimation of the Bihar-Nepal Earthquake
The 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake produced shaking of intensity X, IX and VIII (Modified Mercalli Intensity scale) within the Kathmandu Valley. It is believed that this shaking was primarily due to amplification of the local soil, lacustrine sediments several hundred meters thick. Therefore, a similar distribution of shaking can be expected from all major, distant earthquakes affecting the Valley. In addition, there is a high probability of liquefication in many of the Valley's urban areas, particularly near rivers.A brief summary of the loss estimates for a possible repeat of the 1934 level of shaking follows:
- As many as 60 percent of all buildings in the Kathmandu Valley are likely to experience heavy damage, many beyond repair.
- Almost half of the bridges in the Valley could be impassible, and ten percent of all paved roads will have moderate damage, such as deep cracks or subsidence. The country's only international airport may be inaccessible. The prevalence of extremely narrow roads, which could easily be blocked by debris, will exacerbate the problem.
- Approximately 90 percent of water pipes and 50 percent of other water system components (pumping stations, treatment plants, etc.) could be seriously damaged. Almost all telephone exchange buildings and 60 percent of telephone lines are likely to be damaged, requiring significant to moderate repair to operate. Approximately 40 percent of electric lines and all electric substations are likely to be damaged.
- Simply applying the percentage of the population killed or injured in the 1934 earthquake to the population of the Valley today results in an estimate of 22,000 deaths and 25,000 injuries requiring hospitalization. Applying more recent earthquake casualty figures from cities comparable to the Kathmandu Valley results in an estimate of 40,000 deaths and 95,000 injuries in the Kathmandu Valley's next major earthquake.
