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Newsletter
Next Generation Scenarios: Studies and Guidance
Geologic hazards scenarios provide an excellent mechanism for thinking through complex problems in advance of earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions.
By showing specific consequences–to people, buildings, infrastructure, and land–a scenario approach makes technical information understandable. People can envision what could happen in their own community, and they can make informed decisions to limit potential harm and damage.
Our research shows that scenarios can strongly motivate communities to implement long-term risk mitigation actions. But there is room for improvement in the way scenarios are developed, particularly in low-resource international contexts. Our research considered: How could scenarios be improved to motivate mitigation actions and policy change? Too often, past geologic hazard scenarios stopped at characterizing the risk and did not link these findings to policy and implementation pathways.
“Next generation” scenario phases, workflow activities, and cross-cutting themes. Advancing Scenario Practice to Build Resilience to Geologic Hazards
We developed guidance for “next generation” scenarios that support locally owned, locally led, and locally sustained resilience efforts. The free, downloadable document, Advancing Scenario Practice to Build Resilience to Geologic Hazards, describes a “next generation” scenario effort in detail. It describes effective people-centered practices, identified from past scenarios as well as advancements. Based on its scenario findings, a community can chart a course of action that achieves small wins, middle distance pathways, and long term programs.
The scenario effort has three sequential phases. Planning emphasizes risk mitigation a action as the outcome. Co-production is a process in which diverse stakeholders and decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners share knowledge, develop scenario outcomes, and develop feasible solutions. Implementation focuses on the actions that the community undertakes to reduce and mitigate its risks from geologic hazards. Each phase includes distinct workflow activities and shared cross-cutting themes.
This guidance is based on interviews with people in four countries (Nepal, Ecuador, New Zealand, and California, U.S.A.) who have developed and used geologic hazards scenarios as well as research of past scenario efforts and emerging approaches. Before our study, few efforts captured valuable lessons or evaluated how past scenario efforts engaged local partners and motivated mitigation action.
Download “next generation” scenario guidance here
New Scenario Methods to Motivate Action Ahead of Disasters
Watch a video discussion of research findings:
Advancing Scenario Practice to Motivate Mitigation - Key Findings from Past Scenarios https://youtu.be/ujJeHo7X9Uk
