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Assessments & Scenarios

People have a hard time visualizing how a major threat could become a disaster that will affect them and their family, in specific ways, for months and years. Local leaders are often overwhelmed by the scale of the problem, or in some cases are not aware of it.


That’s why we develop disaster scenarios that personalize the impacts. That’s why we assess the specific vulnerabilities of local buildings and infrastructure. Our process engages diverse voices along with local and international experts. The results make complex problems approachable and provide a compelling basis for local decisions about growth, policy, and action.



Amplified Risk: Understanding & Addressing Impacts to Communities from Geologic Hazards Affected by Climate Change

2022 - 2026


Our Amplified Risk program is analyzing and compiling current understanding of how climate change is likely to worsen geologic hazards and their impacts. The four-year, USAID-funded program is focusing on impacts likely to affect lower-resourced countries at risk from earthquakes and volcanic activity as well as the landslides and tsunamis that these events may trigger.

Building on the investigation of impacts, transdisciplinary teams from many countries will develop guidance to mitigate shifting risks, adapt to changing conditions, or prepare for the disasters that the changing climate may make more likely.

We are collaborating with officials and communities in three locations to reduce climate change-amplified local risks. The first is in the Philippines, a country at great risk from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and climate change impacts.

Next Generation Scenarios: Studies and Guidance

2020 - 2024


Geologic hazards scenarios provide an excellent mechanism for thinking through complex problems in advance of earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions.

By showing specific consequences–to people, buildings, infrastructure, and land–a scenario approach makes technical information understandable. People can envision what could happen in their own community, and they can make informed decisions to limit potential harm and damage.

Our research shows that scenarios can strongly motivate communities to implement long-term risk mitigation actions. But there is room for improvement in the way scenarios are developed, particularly in low-resource international contexts. Our research considered: How could scenarios be improved to motivate mitigation actions and policy change? Too often, past geologic hazard scenarios stopped at characterizing the risk and did not link these findings to policy and implementation pathways.

Rapid Post Earthquake Community-Sourced Data Collection



A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck Haiti’s southern peninsula in August 2021, causing extensive building failures that killed thousands.

Seismic Resilience Evaluations

2013, 2016 - 2018


This program developed practice in Bhutan to identify the structural vulnerabilities of local buildings before an earthquake occurs, which can inform risk mitigation, and developed detailed guidance for life-safety evaluations of local buildings after an earthquake, which can help the country manage efficient recovery.

Knowledge Exchange and Technical Advising for Infrastructure Risk Management



This program addressed the resilience challenges of water supply systems located in steep terrain, specifically in two India hill cities: Aizawl in Mizoram, and Shimla in Himachal Pradesh.


“Scenarios depict how a plausible event could cause certain losses, and how proactive changes would lead to safer outcomes. We typically include stories and local voices to personalize our science-based findings.”

Janise Rodgers, PhD.

GeoHazards International




“I admire GHI because no one else is doing the independent, objective work they're doing. They're not constrained by bureaucracy or politics — so they can offer expertise, provide access to a network, bring resources together — and do all those things with integrity.”

Former Senior Regional Advisor, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance



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