By taking action in advance of earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions, it is possible to reduce impacts on people and societies. But where to start? Scenarios provide an excellent mechanism for thinking through complex problems.

Scenarios can show specific consequences–to people, buildings, infrastructure, and land. This approach makes complex technical information understandable for people who may be overwhelmed by risks and uncertainties. They can envision what could happen. They can make informed decisions to limit potential harm and damage.

But there is room for improvement in the way scenarios are developed, particularly in low-resource international contexts. We researched the question: How could scenarios be improved to motivate mitigation actions and policy change? Too often, past geologic hazard scenarios stopped at characterizing the risk or failed to motivate change.

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck Haiti’s southern peninsula in August 2021, causing extensive building failures that killed thousands.

This program developed practice in Bhutan to identify the structural vulnerabilities of local buildings before an earthquake occurs, which can inform risk mitigation, and developed detailed guidance for life-safety evaluations of local buildings after an earthquake, which can help the country manage efficient recovery.

This program addressed the resilience challenges of water supply systems located in steep terrain, specifically in two India hill cities: Aizawl in Mizoram, and Shimla in Himachal Pradesh.

GeoHazards International brought together international, national and state-level experts to conduct a BRCA focused on the Government of Kerala’s vision for climate and disaster resilience, energy conservation, and green buildings.

A study of earthquake risk reduction activities, needs, and barriers, to help guide GEM’s future tool and resource development for users who are not risk assessment experts.

A series of earthquakes and hurricanes since 2008 have caused significant damage to Haiti’s school infrastructure and completely destroyed numerous schools. This project for the World Bank developed a better picture of the risk factors and challenges across the country. Our team’s findings and recommendations will help the Government of Haiti to prioritize measures for improving school facilities and the safety of students.

International technical experts and regional policymakers in central asia developed strategies to manage very high seismic risk in capital cities of five new countries, formerly part of the USSR..

Technical information about likely lethality of earthquakes in 21 cities-- including vulnerable aspects of the built environment, schools and hospitals--to help the cities prioritize risk mitigation efforts.

Earthquake scenarios and action plans provide city-specific objectives for disaster preparedness and mitigation, and were developed with government, science, business and academic sectors.

Studied the feasibility of vertical evacuation solutions in Padang for safety during tsunamis. This could save lives in coastal cities where high ground does not exist or people do not have time to evacuate.

Scientists, engineers and planners together developed a likely scenario of earthquake impact to Quito, and based on this local leaders planned programs to mitigate that risk.

Using models to identify and quantify building damage from two likely earthquakes affecting the capital city, the scenarios will inform land use planning and building codes to reduce risk.

Created a disaster scenario that vividly depicts likely casualties, damages, and actions to reduce risk. Chinese partners learned to develop this tool for public awareness and risk-informed planning.

Investigations of still dangerous slopes in Idukki, where 2018 landslides damaged thousands of homes. Partnered with Kerala University, Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA), local officials.

Local engineers, geologists, and professors learned in intensive field courses how to assess hazard risk, apply safe development regulations and map hazards, and reduce landslide risk.

A detailed scenario process engaged leaders and technical professionals in India’s most populous hill city to understand, assess and mitigate Aizawl’s very high risk of landslides and earthquakes.

Technical review and field testing of a World Health Organization (WHO) tool to screen hospitals’ vulnerabilities to multiple hazards as well as their level of emergency and disaster preparedness.

Emergency planning and realistic disaster simulations for staff at hospitals in Bhutan, plus mitigations to keep the facilities functioning post disaster.

A comprehensive program that outlines how to keep students out of harm’s way who live in high-risk earthquake, tsunami, and volcano hazard zones in APEC countries.

One objective was to quantify and plan how to mitigate the high vulnerability of public schools. This led to hands-on training and seismic retrofit of many schools.

Scenarios of a plausible earthquake quantify impacts, including more than 50% of schools damaged, and guide communities to reduce extreme risk before a disaster.

This study found significant earthquake vulnerability in Gujarat public school buildings and recommended steps to reduce and mitigate the risk.

Created school programs and disseminated disaster awareness materials to over 50% of schoolchildren in cities with high seismic risk:Tashkent, Dushanbe and Almaty.

Guidance for nations to develop an effective school earthquake safety program, approved by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

These consensus-based action plans, which include ways to prepare for and reduce risk in schools and health facilities, were adopted into national policy.